Europe's fight for relevance may require swallowing Trump's nonsense

The last week has been horrific. But we need to keep engaging with the world as it is, not how we wish it to be

Note: this is not the sort of thing I intended to write on my Substack, as I don’t really like sharing my opinions on anything. But it’s been knocking around my head since Wednesday night.

Photo by Jørgen Håland on Unsplash

“You can’t wish the world you want into existence.”

A friend of mine who worked in the Obama White House has said this – or some variant – to me more times than I can remember since 2016. The context was usually me asking if he thought something mad Donald Trump had said meant the end of the world (not literally).

This friend is an optimist, despite the odds, and is always of the view that no matter how far the world had slipped from where you wanted it to be, it was always worth trying to engage and bring it back. I’ve been thinking about that friend a lot this week.

Trump’s hostility to Ukraine and Zelenskyy is nothing short of horrifying. From mineral deals indicating Trump sees peace as a transaction to calling Ukraine’s President a dictator while his team chums up to the Kremlin, it’s been a bleak few days.

I understand the instinct to throw your hands in the air and think it’s all intolerable. But those of us in Europe who still support Ukraine need to engage with the world that exists, not simply wish things were different.

That’s going to require separating noise from signal as much as possible. It’s going to mean taking a lot of deep breaths and acknowledging that however awful Trump’s behaviour can be, he has a history of saying stuff with no follow through. It’s going to mean holding our noses, looking at Trump’s negotiation tactics on merit and trying where possible to see whatever positive opportunities we can.

That might mean appreciating that Russia may have never come to the table to negotiate if Ukraine and European allies were invited to these early talks. It might mean living in hope that this is all an opening gambit from Trump.

I appreciate that this is wishful thinking on my part and am fully aware that it could all go the other way. Trump has removed key stakeholders from talks at a critical moment in history and it might not end how many of us would like.

But it doesn’t mean Europe doesn’t have a voice and won’t have any influence later down the line. Which is why we in Europe, hard as it might be, have to try and ignore the nonsense claims – that Ukraine could have ended it three years ago; that Zelenskyy is a dictator, for example.

That is going to mean ignoring any bombastic statements made by Trump and focussing on substance – policy – that comes from these talks. Where possible, we need to try and see Trump’s erratic behaviour as a catalyst, where possible . We need to look for openings where European influence can make a difference, rather than say it’s all horrible and walk away. Because that helps no one.

I’m not pretending this is easy and I am certainly not suggesting Trump might have a clever plan or is playing 8-dimensional chess with the Kremlin. I am just saying that deciding Trump has already handed Putin everything he wants and walking away helps nothing.

The time for Europe to fight for its relevance was always going to come in Trump’s second term. And, however hard it might be, it might be time to test the (credible) theory that Trump can be flattered into more positive action.