The Coalition of the Willing may already need a Plan B

If Putin wants to make the West hurt, it needs to be able to respond in kind

Photo by Nik on Unsplash

Vladimir Putin is doing a good job of holding up ceasefire talks. This is hardly surprising as capitulation would be an admission of failure for a man who clearly didn't think this war - that he started - would drag on for three years.

Indeed, it would be very hard for the self-styled hardman to admit that his “special military operation” has failed so dramatically. It has already cost Russia hundreds of thousands of lives, the scorn of much of the world and serious economic harm. How, exactly, can the leader of a wannabe superpower walk away and admit it’s all been for nothing – bar contested territorial gains?

Well, he needs this war to end as much as anyone for the exact reasons outlined above. However, it looks as though he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the off-ramp that Donald Trump has provided him. An off-ramp, by the way, that is far more than Putin deserves.

If that’s not possible, Europe has a bit of a problem. The so-called Coalition of the Willing (COTW), that Keir Starmer has generously/naively (delete as appropriate) offered to lead must start thinking of a Plan B.

This might seem odd, seeing as they don’t yet have a Plan A. That’s not a criticism, by the way. It is very hard to make a plan to deploy peacekeepers when a temporary ceasefire, let alone a lasting peace deal, is still only hypothetical.

But, given Putin’s current behaviour, it seems likely that the Kremlin wants to drag this process out for as long as possible. That could be because it doesn’t want to give Ukraine a chance to catch its breath and reorganise. It could be that he wants to completely recapture the Kursk region, stripping Ukraine of a bargaining chip.

But Putin must also know that ultimately, the longer no ceasefire comes – and the more he forces the COTW to discuss their plans – the more likely divisions will appear.

Countries are going to have different appetites for what to do in the event Putin doesn’t agree to a peace deal. The West, he will assume, is more likely to fracture politically than Russia, a country he rules over with an iron fist.

This is the eventuality that COTW must be preparing for. Plan B must be agreed sooner rather than later. Countries must be upfront about their own redlines so that if Plan B is to be activated, it is done smoothly with no public arguments.

I asked a number of Western security officials what that plan might look like, given the complexities. I asked them to assume the ceasefire talks haven’t gone anywhere – meaning there is no mandate for peacekeepers – and that Europeans will maintain their reticence to do anything that could be considered escalatory by Russia.

The consensus view was that Europeans should double down immediately on military aid to Ukraine. More lethal weapons, more training, the aim should be as maximalist as possible but ensure it is Ukrainians who do the fighting. They should also start going after Russian proxies around the world, especially in Africa.

On economics, most officials think if Putin tanks these talks then it’s gloves off. Stop all hydrocarbon exports, end visas and tourism.

Finally, most agreed that it was time for the widespread use of frozen assets for a rebuild Ukraine fund.

The logic behind all of these ideas is that no one seriously believes that Putin, despite everything, actually wants to escalate with NATO. But they do believe he is happy to drag the negotiation process on for as long as possible because it causes Europeans pain.

The only way to counter that is to inflict even greater pain on Russia and its citizens. That means Plan B must be ready to go as soon as possible. It must make dragging out the war hurt Putin and Russia as much, if not more, than Europe, with immediate effect.

Yes, Russia has suffered during this conflict. But not enough to put sufficient pressure on Putin. Time works in different ways for dictators, who don’t fear elections or criminal prosecution. The only way to put pressure on them is to make them feel that time is running out. The only way to do that now might be to put the burden and consequences of the war more firmly on the shoulders of the Russian public.

That, at least, is what security officials across Europe think.

Thanks for reading and until next time,

Luke